MILITARY & DEFENSE
HARLEEN GAMBHIR, INSTITUTE FOR
THE STUDY OF WAR
MAY 23, 2015, 9:03 AM
The Islamic State of Iraq and
al-Sham conducted two major bombings on Shia mosques in the Arabian Peninsula
on May 22nd through its affiliates in Yemen
and Saudi Arabia .
ISIS claimed responsibility for
an IED explosion that injured at least 13 Shia worshippers during Friday
prayers in the al Sayyah Mosque in Sana’a, Yemen .
In statements circulated by
ISIS’s supporters on Twitter after the attacks, ISIS reportedly asserted that
it would “expel all the unbelievers from the Arabian
Peninsula .”
ISIS’s threat to Saudi Arabia is
not new. ISIS declared its intent to attack both Saudi
Arabia and Yemen in late 2014. Over the course
of this year, ISIS has escalated its
activities in both countries in order to increase regional disorder and
undermine the Saudi-led Arab coalition. Today’s two attacks were possibly
coordinated, reflecting an acceleration in an ongoing campaign by ISIS to
destabilize Saudi Arabia and
gain power in Yemen .
It is conducting simultaneous
campaigns to defend its existing territory within Iraq
and Syria , to foster
affiliates in the Middle East and North Africa
region, and to launch polarizing attacks in the rest of the world. Saudi Arabia and Yemen
have been a part of ISIS’s global expansion since ISIS ’s
leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared wilayats, or governorates in both
countries in November 2014. I
ISIS’s predecessor, al-Qaeda in Iraq , had cells recruiting foreign fighters in Saudi Arabia which ISIS
may have used to establish attack cells. Since November 2014 ISIS’s supporters
in Saudi Arabia have
attempted numerous attacks, including a failed plot to bomb the American
embassy in Riyadh
in March 2015.
ISIS’s operatives also have been
linked to several drive-by shootings targeting police officers in Riyadh , most recently on
May 8. Today’s suicide bombing in al-Qadeeh matches ISIS’s signature
methodology, fueling sectarian tensions by explosively attacking a Shia place
of worship. ISIS’s claim to the attack is supported by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula ’s recent claim that it does not attack
mosques.
ISIS’s affiliates also
intensified their activity in Yemen ,
where the internal war between the al Houthis and anti-al Houthi forces has
enabled both AQAP and ISIS to increase their operations.
ISIS chose targets in Yemen and Saudi
Arabia because it seeks to undermine both the Arab
coalition and Iran
and its proxies. Over the past week ISIS has released two major publications
criticizing Saudi Arabia
and its participation in the Yemeni conflict.
ISIS’s leader al-Baghdadi
released a speech on May 14, his first since late 2014, claiming that Saudi
rulers, “the slaves of the Crusaders and the allies of the Jews,” had lost
their legitimacy to lead the Sunni people because of their cooperation with the
Shia in Iraq and because of
their inaction in Syria and Palestine . ISIS also
criticized Saudi Arabia in
the latest issue of its English-language magazine Dabiq, released on May 21,
further blaming Saudi leaders for supporting rebels allied with al-Qaeda
affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria .
ISIS’s strategy to compromise Saudi Arabia has already entailed a complex
combination of attacks designed to compromise the Kingdom’s regional balance of
power against Iran ,
its integrity as a state, its religious legitimacy, and its western alliances.
ISIS’s attack in Saudi Arabia
thus serves several goals.
It undermines Saudi Arabia ’s
claim to internal security and encourages the exacerbation of sectarian
tensions within the country. It also complicates Saudi
Arabia ’s leadership of an Arab-led coalition working to
counter Iranian influence, by forcing Saudi Arabia to protect Shia
populations within the kingdom as an internal security effort.
It also requires Saudi Arabia to focus its anti-ISIS efforts at
home rather than abroad, part of ISIS’s strategy to defend its caliphate lands
inside Iraq and Syria . Paired
with ISIS’s attack in Yemen ,
today’s events also highlight the growing possibility that ISIS
may launch coordinated attacks using multiple regional affiliates.
As we approach the one-year
anniversary of ISIS’s capture of Mosul
and declaration of a caliphate, it appears that the organization is more robust
than ever. ISIS is expanding its operations, and exploiting state tensions
across the Middle East in order to accelerate
disorder and gain power.
Read the original article on
Institute For The Study Of War. Copyright 2015. Follow Institute For The Study
Of War on Twitter.
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